Akademische Publikationen


The Future of Multilateral Concessional Finance

Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) 06/2014

Emboldened by a decade of poor-country convergence and poverty reduction, many are now imagining a world without extreme poverty (often defined as 3 percent of the world population living on USD 1.25 Purchasing Power Parity a day or less) in not too distant future. This paper presents the major determinants of the future demand for concessional finance and produces scenarios for multilateral concessional finance eligibility. It then discusses general strategic implications for the future orientation of multilateral concessional finance and presents actionable options for the development of each the International Development Association (IDA), the Asian Development Fund (ADF), the African Development Fund (AfDF), and the concessional facilities of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


Chinas langer Aufstieg in der Weltwirtschaft oder wie Kollaps-Szenarien kollabieren

GIGA Focus Global, 09/2013

China plant weitere Reformen: Im November 2013 trafen sich die Mitglieder des Zentralkomitees der Kommunistischen Partei zum Dritten Plenum. Die Sitzung zu Beginn der neuen Führungsära unter Staats- und Parteichef Xi Jinping und Ministerpräsident Li Keqiang diente der wirtschaftlichen Neuorientierung des Reiches der Mitte.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

Open Economies Review, July 2013

Although currency adjustment is often proposed as a policy tool to reduce current account imbalances, there is no consensus regarding the macroeconomic effects. In this paper we study the macroeconomic aftermath of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries over the period 1960–2008, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks. We use narrative identification of exogenous appreciation episodes and study the macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results indicate that exchange rate appreciations tend to have strong effects on current account balances. Within 3 years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, but the output costs are small and not statistically significant. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries.

Economic Policy and Social Affairs in the BRICS

SGI - Sustainable Governance Indicators, Bertelsmann Stiftung

This report focuses on sustainable governance in the policy areas of economic and labor governance, as well as social affairs governance. For the first time, this study evaluates the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – on the basis of Sustainable Governance Indicators (SGI) previously quantified only for OECD countries.

The Macroeconomic Effect of Large Exchange rate Appreciations

Open Economies Review, 30 June 2012

Vor dem Hintergrund der hohen chinesischen Überschüsse wird bezweifelt, daß Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte durch Wechselkursänderungen dauerhaft korrigiert werden können. Hinter diesem Zweifel steht die saldenmechanische Identität, daß die Leistungsbilanz die Differenz volkswirtschaftlicher Ersparnisse und Investitionen reflektiert. Der Artikel zeigt aber, daß in den letzten 50 Jahren vor allem die Unternehmensersparnisse durch dauerhafte Aufwertungen reduziert wurden, die Investionen aber wenig betroffen wurden. Eine Aufwertung der chinesischen Währung kann demnach einen Teil zur Wiederherstellung globaler Zahlungsgleichgewichte leisten.

The Remnimbi and Poor Country Growth

The World Economy, Vol 35.3, March 2012

Arme Entwicklungsländer haben entgegen einer weitverbreiteten Vermutung von dem niedrigen Niveau des chinesischen Renminbi sehr profitiert, da Chinas Wachstum und seine Importnachfrage nach Rohstoffen und arbeitsintensiven verarbeiteten Produkten das Wachstum der armen Länder beflügelt hat. Andere Schwellenländer sahen sich dagegen zunächst einem direkten Wettbewerb mit China ausgesetzt, dessen Währung allerdings als weniger unterbewertet berechnet wird als oft unterstellt wird.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations

ZEW Discussion Paper No. 11-016

The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical backbone to the debate about the macroeconomic effects of large upward exchange rate adjustments of tightly managed or pegged exchange rate regimes.

The multilateral donor non-system: towards accountability and efficient role assignment

Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol.4 (2010), 5, pp. 1-22.

A prerequisite for efficient aid delivery is to map the rising complexity of multilateral development finance, to help identify areas for consolidation, address fragmentation and poor co-ordination at country level, and help identify comparative advantages for an institutional role assignment among multilateral agencies. After doing just that, the paper explores why the multilateral donors have proliferated and provides broad recommendations for a more efficient and accountable multilateral donor system.

Eastern Donors and Western Soft Law: Towards a DAC Donor Peer Review of China and India?

Development Policy Review, 2010, Vol. 28 (5): pp. 535-552

The international system is still governed by a normative framework designed mainly by OECD countries, especially with regard to soft-law standards in the field of development co-operation. However, the growing relevance of ‘Eastern donors’ is weakening its efficiency and raises the question of how compliance with these standards can be assured in a changing donor landscape.


Prudent versus Imprudent Lending to Africa:From Debt Relief to Emerging Lenders

OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 268, 2008.


The Macro Management of Commody Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand

OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE Working Paper No. 270, 2008.